Who is most likely to rule Russia after Putin?
I have a feeling that after Putin, we’ll see someone young — in his late 40s or 50s, like we saw Gorbachev who came after the long era of Brezhnev.
Yes, I know that Gorbachev didn’t come immediately after Brezhnev — first, there was Andropov, and then Chernenko. But both of them were leaders very briefly (both are rumored to have been assassinated).
In fact, 4 of the last General Secretaries of Politburo of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union are on that photo above — Brezhnev, Gorbachev, Chernenko, and Andropov (left to right). It was made on Nov.7, 1981 — a year before Brezhnev picked cold on November 7 parade and died 5 days after.
So, in case of Putin’s departure, there may be temporarily no official leader — Russia’s prime-minister Mikhail Mishustin is the person who is supposed to become the head of state until a new president is elected.
And then it will depend on who will de facto become the major force in the country — will it be the FSB? The military? Ukrainian occupational army? The council of revolutionary forces?
And this will obviously depend on how Putin will depart. One thing if this happens in case of his natural death, another if it’s assassination — and a completely different story if Putin gets deposed and arrested.
All of these things are possible.
Some are more probable than others.