Will Ukraine eventually return to Russia's sphere of influence?
That train has left the station.
Ukraine’s society is on an irreversible path toward the West, and this shift has nothing to do with the country’s politicians or even the outcome of this war.
Even if Russia were able to occupy most of Ukraine or install a puppet regime there, it wouldn’t change anything.
When you talk to ordinary Ukrainians, not the wealthy elites, you’ll find that people are fed up with the old, Russia-influenced way of life and governance. You don’t need to be a Ukrainian turbo-patriot to see that the “Russian World,” as Putin calls his project of conquering and subjugating Russia’s neighbors, holds no appeal for anyone.
Kyiv, Ukraine. (Picture by the author of this post)
Living under Russia’s sphere of influence means existing in a state riddled with corruption, devoid of individual freedoms and civil rights. Being Russian means either living in abject poverty or being a part of a corrupt system.
This model of governance might appeal to some undereducated individuals in Russia’s provinces, who may not know any alternative, but it is not attractive to the average Ukrainian.
People in Ukraine value their freedom. They are often highly educated, skilled, and eager to enjoy the rewards of their hard work. Like people in the West, they enjoy traveling, exploring opportunities, and, yes, consuming. They want better prospects—not just for themselves but for their children as well.
Russia simply has nothing to offer