Does Ukraine have a sufficient number of trained soldiers ready for combat?
Ukraine possesses highly capable and skilled soldiers, but their numbers remain insufficient to achieve the ambitious strategic objectives initially outlined: the complete liberation of occupied territories, including Crimea and the Donbas.
This has been my consistent assessment for years, and recent developments have only reinforced this perspective.
Why have I maintained this view? The lack of substantial progress on the frontlines has been evident, particularly following the 2023 summer offensive. Despite considerable effort and sacrifice, that campaign fell far short of its strategic goals, failing to produce significant territorial gains or alter the overall momentum of the conflict.
Now, nearly three years into the war, the challenges persist. Russian forces have not only maintained their positions but have continued to advance in certain areas. Meanwhile, Ukraine has diverted critical time, manpower, and resources to operations in regions like Kursk. While such actions may cause temporary disruptions, they fail to address the larger strategic imperatives of the war.
The central sector remains the decisive battleground. For months, Russian forces have concentrated their efforts in this area, working to push the frontlines forward and neutralize Ukrainian artillery positions threatening Donetsk. It is here that the outcome of the conflict may ultimately be decided.
Despite the dedication and skill of Ukraine’s soldiers, the demands of prolonged warfare, limited resources, and the scale of the objectives pose significant challenges. Achieving the overarching strategic goals will require not only continued resilience but also enhanced support, coordination, and adaptability on multiple fronts.
